Retirement Drawdown Calculator
Will your savings last? Enter your portfolio, the amount you plan to withdraw each year, your expected return, and how fast withdrawals grow with inflation. The calculator simulates the balance forward and tells you how many years it lasts — or whether it's sustainable indefinitely. Or flip the mode and solve it backward: tell it how long the money must last and it finds the most you can withdraw. Add your age to see the age your money runs to. All in your browser.
Sustainable indefinitely
Initial withdrawal rate vs the 4% rule: ≤3% very safe · 3–4% the classic zone · 4–5% aggressive · above 5% high risk.
Year-by-year breakdown
| Year | Age | Withdrawal | Growth | End balance |
|---|
The classic "4% rule" suggests an initial withdrawal rate around 4% (rising with inflation) has historically lasted 30+ years. Above that, the risk of running out climbs — especially if a market downturn hits early (sequence-of-returns risk), which a smooth average return doesn't capture. Treat this as a guide, not a guarantee.
The withdrawal rate is the whole game
How long money lasts comes down to your initial withdrawal rate versus your real (after-inflation) return. Withdraw less than your portfolio earns in real terms and it can last forever; withdraw more and you're on a countdown. The calculator shows both numbers so you can see which side of the line you're on — and how a small change to the withdrawal moves the finish line by years.
Ask it backward: what can I withdraw?
Often the sharper question isn't "how long will it last" but "what's the most I can take?" Switch to What can I withdraw, set the number of years the money must last, and the calculator solves for the largest first-year withdrawal — still rising with inflation — that exhausts the portfolio exactly on schedule. It's the same simulation run in reverse, so the two modes always agree. The year-by- year table shows the plan it found: each withdrawal, the growth, and the balance gliding to zero.
Inflation is the quiet drain
A withdrawal that feels safe today gets heavier every year as inflation pushes your spending up. That's why this tool grows your withdrawal with inflation rather than holding it flat — it's the honest version. The practical lesson is to anchor on a conservative starting rate and leave headroom, because the withdrawals only get bigger from here.
A model, not a promise
This is a smooth simulation; real returns are anything but. The order of good and bad years matters enormously in retirement — a crash while you're drawing down does lasting damage. Use the result as a planning guide, give yourself a safety margin below the 4% guideline, and revisit it as conditions change.
Related
- Personal finance hub — all our money calculators and guides
- FIRE calculator — your financial-independence number
- Retirement calculator — project your balance with employer match
- Inflation calculator — what erodes your withdrawals
FAQ
Is anything I enter sent to a server?
No. The calculator runs entirely in your browser — open DevTools → Network and confirm. Your savings figures never leave the tab.
What does 'sustainable' mean here?
It means that, at the return you entered, the portfolio grows at least as fast as your inflation-adjusted withdrawals, so the balance holds steady or rises and the money effectively never runs out (the tool caps the projection at 100 years). It happens when your withdrawal rate is comfortably below your real return.
How does this relate to the 4% rule?
The 4% rule is a withdrawal-rate guideline: start by taking 4% of your portfolio in year one, then raise that dollar amount with inflation each year. Historically that has lasted 30+ years in most scenarios. Set your year-1 withdrawal to 4% of your portfolio and a positive inflation rate and you'll see the rule play out — the meter under the headline shows where your rate sits: ≤3% is very safe, 3–4% is the classic zone, 4–5% is aggressive, and above 5% is high risk. Lower rates last longer; higher rates risk running dry.
How does "What can I withdraw" work?
It runs the same year-by-year simulation in reverse. You set how long the money must last (say 30 years), and the calculator searches for the first-year withdrawal that — rising with inflation every year — exhausts the portfolio in exactly that time. The search is a simple bisection over the simulation, so the answer is consistent with the "how long will it last" mode: feed the result back in and you'll get your horizon back. Add your age and it also shows the age the plan runs to.
Why does inflation matter so much?
Because your spending rises over time even if your portfolio's nominal return looks healthy. A 6% return with 3% inflation only gives you about 3% of real headroom. This tool grows your withdrawal each year by the inflation rate, which is why a seemingly safe withdrawal can still deplete the balance — the withdrawals quietly get bigger.
What's the biggest thing this doesn't model?
Sequence-of-returns risk. Real markets don't deliver a smooth average — they zig and zag. A few bad years early in retirement, while you're withdrawing, can permanently damage a portfolio that the same average return would otherwise sustain. A constant return is optimistic; build in a margin of safety with a lower withdrawal rate.